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There are a number of ways to measure excess mortality and each method has challenges, including how to properly estimate the number of expected deaths that would occur in a non-COVID‑19 context compared to the current death counts. To account for pre-pandemic trends in mortality, including the effects of a growing and aging population, Statistics Canada is using an approach that has been adopted by other countries to estimate expected deaths. Using excess mortality insights to assess the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic can help to understand when there are more deaths during a period of time than would be expected for that period. The number of excess deaths is measured as the difference between the number of observed deaths and the number of expected deaths over a certain period of time. Provisional weekly estimates of the number of deaths, expected number of deaths and excess mortality Exploring the trends: Provisional death estimate insights In fact, Alberta and British Columbia had higher than expected weekly deaths through much of 2022. While the first period of excess mortality in 2022 was driven by excess mortality in Quebec and Ontario, the most recent period of excess mortality was driven by excess mortality in the three westernmost provinces. In the spring, excess deaths were observed from the middle of April 2022 to the middle of June 2022. During this period of excess mortality, the highest number of deaths and the highest weekly rate of excess mortality of the pandemic were recorded in the third week of January 2022: over one in five deaths during this week would not have been expected had there been no pandemic. Nationally, there were significantly more deaths than expected from the beginning of January 2022 to the end of February 2022. Since the emergence of the Omicron variant in late November 2021, there have been two periods of significant excess mortality observed so far. For example, in the early summer of 2021, Alberta and British Columbia experienced a heat dome which coincided with more than 3,500 deaths in the two provinces over a two-week period ending July 10. While in general, these four periods have coincided with higher numbers of deaths due directly to COVID‑19, excess mortality could be affected because of various other factors, including delayed medical procedures, increased harms related to substance use, or changes in the prevalence of other diseases and medical conditions. There was a shorter period experienced in May 2021, and another coinciding with the emergence of the Delta variant, from July 2021 to December 2021. From March 2020 to June 2020, followed by a longer period of excess deaths from September 2020 to February 2021. Prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID‑19, four significant periods of excess mortality were observed nationally since the start of the pandemic. The effects of this increase were felt most among those aged younger than 65 years. Alcohol-induced mortality also increased significantly throughout the pandemic. Younger age groups made up a disproportionate number of deaths from overdoses.
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While COVID‑19 has been a main driver of excess deaths overall, other factors are driving excess mortality as well, particularly among younger Canadians.ĭeaths attributed to unintentional (accidental) poisonings and exposure to noxious substances, including overdoses from prescription, over-the-counter and illicit substances, have risen since the beginning of the pandemic.
However, those younger than 65 years have accounted for just over 10% of the deaths attributed to COVID‑19 but 30% of the excess deaths, suggesting that other factors are driving excess mortality among younger Canadians.
From March 2020 to early March 2021, about one third of the excess mortality and just over half of the deaths caused by COVID‑19 observed in Canada involved individuals older than 84. Since the onset of the pandemic, older Canadians have experienced a disproportionate share of both excess deaths and COVID‑19-caused deaths.
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